朱教授遞規(guī)案例：In December 2009, 10 red weather balloons were deployed from locations throughout the United States. The project’s aim: testing the mettle of social media.
在2009年的12月，組織者在全美隨機(jī)放飛了10個紅色氣球，組織者希望通過該項(xiàng)目測試社會媒體的力量。
The Red Balloon Challenge, sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the U.S. Department of Defense, laid out a simple objective: Use social media to identify the GPS coordinates for all 10 balloons, suspended at fixed locations across the country. The first team to do so would win \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\$40,000. The challenge, commemorating the 40th anniversary of the Internet, highlighted social networking’s potential to solve widely distributed, time-sensitive problems.
這次比賽被稱為紅氣球挑戰(zhàn)賽，是由國防部國防高級研究室（DARPA）主辦的，挑戰(zhàn)賽的目標(biāo)很簡單，要求挑戰(zhàn)者僅可以使用社會媒體來確定分布在國內(nèi)各地的10個氣球的GPS坐標(biāo)。這次挑戰(zhàn)賽是為了紀(jì)念互聯(lián)網(wǎng)誕生40周年而舉辦的，意在發(fā)覺社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)對解決范圍廣、時間緊問題所蘊(yùn)含的潛力。
More than 4,000 teams entered the competition. Many concentrated their efforts on coverage, reaching out over the Internet to people over as large a geographic area as possible. Some teams tapped into large databases such as college alumni listservs, while others appealed to audiences on Twitter and Facebook.
共有超過4000只隊(duì)伍參加了這次比賽。大多數(shù)參賽者想盡一切辦法希望能夠通過英特網(wǎng)獲得竟可能廣的網(wǎng)民的支持。一些隊(duì)伍甚至開發(fā)了諸如listervs校友錄的大型數(shù)據(jù)庫，也有些則寄希望于Twitter和Facebook上的普通網(wǎng)民。
The winning team, a group of MIT students, cast similarly wide nets across various social networks, but with a twist: The team devised incentives that motivated people to forward its message to others. The team promised \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\$2,000 to the first person who submitted the correct coordinates for a single balloon, and \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\$1,000 to the person who invited that person to the challenge. Another \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\$500 would go to the person who invited the inviter, and so on.
最終一只由MIT學(xué)生組成的參賽隊(duì)贏得了比賽，并不僅僅是簡單的利用各類社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)，他們設(shè)計(jì)了恰當(dāng)?shù)募顧C(jī)制來鼓勵每個人之間相互交流并最終幫助找到氣球。該隊(duì)像準(zhǔn)確提供氣球坐標(biāo)的人提供2000美元的獎勵，而向?qū)⒃撊私榻B到比賽中的介紹人獎勵1000美元，向介紹了介紹人的獎勵500美元，并以此類推。
譯者注：獲獎隊(duì)伍是MIT媒體實(shí)驗(yàn)室組成的隊(duì)伍，包括研究生Anmol Madan, Wei Pan, and Galen Pickard及博士后Manuel Cebrian and Riley Crane，其中Wei Pan是一位來自清華計(jì)算機(jī)的上海小伙。
The system quickly took root, spawning geographically broad, dense branches of connections. After eight hours and 52 minutes, the MIT team identified the correct coordinates for all 10 balloons, doling out some of the prize money to people in the 10 winning chains and donating the rest to charity.
他們設(shè)計(jì)的機(jī)制迅速生根發(fā)芽，并且開始快速生長，形成了錯綜復(fù)雜的網(wǎng)絡(luò)。在8小時52分鐘后，這只MIT的參賽隊(duì)就準(zhǔn)確給出了10只氣球的位置，并如承諾的在將所獲獎金分給找到10只氣球貢獻(xiàn)者后將剩余獎金捐獻(xiàn)給了慈善機(jī)構(gòu)。
In the process, the team collected an enormous amount of data on the size and scope of Internet connections. The researchers analyzed the data, and have published the results in the current issue of Science.
在比賽過程中，這只隊(duì)伍獲得了大量有關(guān)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)聯(lián)通大小及范圍的數(shù)據(jù)，研究者通過分析這些數(shù)據(jù)并將最終結(jié)果發(fā)布在了最新一期的科學(xué)雜志上。
Finding the carrot that will stick
胡蘿卜比大棒好使
Alex “Sandy” Pentland, director of the Human Dynamics Laboratory in the MIT Media Lab, says finding the right incentive is essential to mobilizing large groups of people on a given task. With the right incentives, Pentland says people can work across social networks to accomplish goals beyond balloon searches.
MIT媒體實(shí)驗(yàn)室，人類行為研究項(xiàng)目主管Alex “Sandy” Pentland表示，對于調(diào)動大量人去完成既定任務(wù)只需要尋找到合適的激勵機(jī)制，只要有合適的激勵機(jī)制，人們可以通過社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)完成任何超越找到氣球的任務(wù)。
“You can imagine scenarios like emergencies,” says Pentland, the Toshiba Professor of Media Arts and Sciences. “‘Where’s there a power generator?’ The word goes out, and it comes back in five minutes, and half a million people have thought about it for a microsecond. That would be amazing. Or there’s a lost child, and suddenly you have 10 million eyeballs looking. You can see things like that being enormously valuable.”
“你可以想象這樣一個緊急場景，”這位東芝媒體藝術(shù)與科學(xué)教授Pentland說，“‘哪里能找到發(fā)電機(jī)？’，當(dāng)問題僅僅提出5分鐘，便會有50萬群眾只需要思考1ms變給出答案。這多么神奇啊，而如果你丟了自己的小孩，馬上會有1000萬雙眼球被你吸引，你會獲得無法估量的信息。”
Using incentives to spread information over a social network is certainly not a new idea. Referral marketing programs commonly use incentives to attract, for example, new magazine subscribers, by giving coupons to friends who refer other friends.
使用激勵來通過社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)獲得信息并非是一個新的想法。很多市場營銷手段已經(jīng)開始使用激勵來吸引用戶，比如如果你介紹了朋友訂閱雜志，你自己便會有一定的折扣。
Pentland and his team found their “recursive incentive mechanism” was far more effective than such marketing strategies. In such a system, a person doesn’t necessarily have to pass the message along to the person who subscribes to a magazine. She can gain by simply passing the message along to someone.
Pentland和他的研究小組則發(fā)現(xiàn)“遞歸激勵機(jī)制”的效果要遠(yuǎn)好于傳統(tǒng)的市場營銷策略。在這樣一種激勵下，人們并不需要一定介紹一位會訂閱雜志的朋友，而只需要告訴所有人，這樣他也很有可能獲得收益。
The team compared its results with those of an online newsletter subscription campaign, and found the number and size of “cascades,” or branches of people recruiting others, was significantly larger for the balloon task. The researchers also observed their scheme produced a lower “attrition rate,” or points where people failed to forward the message.
研究小組通過和轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)時事訂閱郵件的比較發(fā)現(xiàn)，不論是邀請的廣度或者深度，找氣球的數(shù)量級都極大。研究者還發(fā)現(xiàn)在這種機(jī)制下，能夠大大降低人們不再轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)的概率。
Pentland’s group also found that their approach had the advantage of speed. The promise of a staggered reward spurred people to quickly reach out to others, versus newsletter subscribers, who exhibited a more delayed response.
Pentland同時發(fā)現(xiàn)在這種機(jī)制下傳播速度也得到很大提升。遞歸的獎勵使得人們迫不及待的將消息轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)給他人，而相比轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)時事郵件，人們則會慢許多。
A twist on tweets
“推”的神奇力量
The group also evaluated its performance against that of other top Red Balloon Challenge teams by analyzing data from Twitter. The students compiled more than 100 million tweets with the word “balloon” during the month before the balloon launch, analyzing them for the top five finalists.
項(xiàng)目組同時還通過分析Twitter上的數(shù)據(jù)分析了其他紅色氣球挑戰(zhàn)賽參賽隊(duì)的表現(xiàn)。他們收集了一億調(diào)包含氣球的twitter的條目來分析比賽前五名參賽隊(duì)的情況。
Based on Twitter data, altruism wasn’t the ideal incentive: A team from the Georgia Institute of Technology’s Research Institute (GTRI), which placed second in the competition, generated a limited number of tweets through its altruism-based approach, which promised to donate prize money to the American Red Cross if people signed on to the challenge.
通過Twitter的數(shù)據(jù)，研究者發(fā)現(xiàn)利他主義絕不是一個好的激勵機(jī)制。來自喬治理工的參賽隊(duì)獲得了第二名，他們保證如果大家?guī)椭麄冓A得比賽他們會將自己獲得的獎金捐給美國紅十字會，然而他們最終僅獲得十分有限的“推”他們這樣利他的消息。
The data also suggested that existing Twitter audiences didn’t necessarily help spread the word. Infamous iPhone and PlayStation 3 hacker George Hotz, who has more than 35,000 followers on Twitter, prompted an initial burst of tweets when he announced the challenge on his feed. Similarly, a team named Geocacher appealed to an existing community of geocachers — people who use navigational techniques to identify hidden objects. Both teams, despite their established audiences, failed to sustain a large presence on Twitter for the Red Balloon Challenge.
通過Twitter的數(shù)據(jù)研究者們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，你在Twitter上粉絲的數(shù)量并不會影響你傳播消息的范圍。聲名狼藉的George Hoze破解了iPhone和PS3，他在Tiwtter上有3萬5千名粉絲，他也參加了氣球挑戰(zhàn)挑戰(zhàn)，但并沒有多少人推他的消息。同樣，一只稱為Geocacher的參賽隊(duì)，他們運(yùn)行著geocacher社區(qū)，大量人通過他來找丟失的東西，盡管他們也擁有大量的粉絲，但他們的找氣球的消息并沒有在Twitter上維持多久就被淹沒了。
In contrast, the MIT team started without a Twitter community. But within a couple of days, it was able to generate a Twitter following comparable to Hotz’s. What’s more, the team observed that when media outlets reported MIT as the winner of the challenge, the number of tweets actually declined, suggesting that the team’s incentive structure played a large role in generating tweets.
而相反，來自MIT的參賽隊(duì)最初并沒有利用Twitter。但幾天之內(nèi)，他們在Twitter上的粉絲數(shù)已經(jīng)可以和Hotz相媲美了。更何況，參賽隊(duì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)媒體開始報道來自MIT的參賽隊(duì)贏得了比賽后，在Twitter上推的數(shù)目大量減少，這說明他們的激勵機(jī)制對于推消息起了極大的作用。
Erica Briscoe, a research scientist and a member of the GTRI team, says MIT’s extrinsic reward structure — promising monetary reward — helped the team generate a large social network quickly.
來自喬治理工參賽隊(duì)的Erica Briscore表示，MIT的激勵機(jī)制，通過金錢的激勵幫助他們快速建立起了一個巨大的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
“I think the challenge brought up the question, ‘What kind of incentives do you need to participate?’” Briscoe says. “And it does seem their incentive scheme was more motivation for people to form that network.”
“這次比賽實(shí)際是這樣一個問題‘到底什么樣的激勵才讓你有動力參與其中’”Briscore說，“結(jié)果看來他們的激勵機(jī)制在現(xiàn)在的玩網(wǎng)絡(luò)環(huán)境下更能得到人們的認(rèn)可。”
The MIT team’s system was not without weaknesses: For example, Pentland says, people could have tried to register under multiple false names, in order to increase their chances of winning. However, the team found little evidence for that, possibly because of the competition’s time pressures.
當(dāng)然MIT所涉及的激勵機(jī)制并非沒有缺點(diǎn)，比如，Pentland承認(rèn)人們可以通過假的信息多次注冊，這樣他們就有可能獲得更多的獎金。然而由于時間的限制，鮮有人去這樣做。
Pentland’s group is currently investigating incentive structures to mobilize large groups in other scenarios, such as disaster response and exercising.
Pertland的小組正在研究這種激勵機(jī)制在其他情況下對調(diào)動大量人力的作用，比如在救災(zāi)中的應(yīng)用。
“Humans are really social animals,” Pentland says. “We live in this web of social relationships, and a lot of what we do and the satisfaction we derive comes from the web of social relationships. So if you want to get people to coordinate or change their behavior, you have to first and foremost deal with the existing web of relationships, rather than treat people as isolated individuals.”